The presidential committee for unification preparation held its first public seminar on Monday, October 20th, under the theme of “Unification Bonanza is Possible.” After President Park Geun-hye described Korea’s unification as a bonanza during her New Year’s message early this year, the committee was launched directly under the president in July. The purpose of the committee is to collect public opinion about unification and draw a blueprint for a unification process and a post-unification era on the Korean Peninsula. Economics professor Kim Byung-yeon at Seoul National University, who gave a presentation at the seminar, made a projection that the gross domestic product per capita for a unified Korea will steadily increase to rank second among G20 countries by the year 2050, following only the U.S. Professor Kim gives us more details.

On the assumption that South and North Korea achieve economic integration first and unification will come about later at an appropriate time, the gross domestic product or GDP per capita of a unified Korea would come in second among G20 nations in 2050. A unified Korea’s economy would grow relatively faster than other economies at an annual rate of 4 to 5 percent. The economy in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula would grow 13.1 percent on average each year from 2015 to 2050, while the South Korean economy would be able to add 0.7 to 0.8 percent to its annual growth rate. This is the potential benefit from the economic integration or unification of the two Koreas.

The economy of a unified Korea is expected to continue growing because a population of 70-million will expand the domestic market, while the two Koreas can reduce military forces, on which both sides spend a huge amount of money when they confront each other. This is expected to influence the economy in a very positive way.

First of all, the market will be expanded and integrated. When South Korea’s legal system is established in the North, and if logistics or other infrastructure facilities are built there, transactions between the two sides will increase. Increasing trade is the driving force behind economic growth. South Korea would purchase underground resources from the North, while South Korean products would be sold in North Korea. In that process, significant added value would be created. Companies that were reluctant to invest in the South Korean market will invest in new industries in a larger domestic market. Secondly, a considerable amount of South Korean capital and time has been used for North Korea-related problems thus far. When the North Korea-related risk is gone, the resources could be used for more productive areas. And lastly, South Korea’s military is rather large compared to other developed countries. If military forces are reduced, and if they are put into the labor market instead, this will generate the effect of additional growth.

Another factor that will contribute to economic growth is that severe social conflict triggered by national division should be resolved after unification. As a result, the South Korean economy may possibly grow at an additional annual rate of 0.7 to 0.8 percent. The underdeveloped North Korean economy would post a much higher annual growth rate of 13.1 percent, which is 16 times higher than that of the South Korean economy. But this rosy outlook is based on certain assumptions. In order to minimize unification costs and maximize the benefits of unification, Professor Kim calls for a theory of “Two Regions, One System,” in which South and North Korea still remain two different regions but create one economic system based on a market economy.

In this theory of “Two Regions, One System,” South and North Korea will be integrated as the same economic community but still be divided into two different states. In other words, political unification won’t be achieved in the initial stage, and the two sides will remain different regions. One economic community is possible when North Korea adopts a market economy. If the two Koreas pursue political unification first, unification costs would be enormous. So, in order to reduce potential costs and maximize unification benefits, it is necessary for the two sides to achieve economic integration first, still being divided into two states, and then to unite into one nation at a certain point in time. This is a desired scenario.

In order for both South and North Korea to prosper together, it appears necessary to achieve economic integration first and then gradually move toward a unified country, rather than pursuing a drastic unification. As seen in the example of German unification, massive unification costs might send the economy reeling.

If Korea follows the model of the rather radical unification of Germany, it might be troubled by unification costs. The income gap between South and North Korea is a lot bigger than the gap between West and East Germany. Therefore, it is possible that South Korea may have to offer far more financial support to the North, compared to the subsidies provided by West Germany to East Germany. The financial burden and unification costs might be too large for the South Korean economy to shoulder. I’d say that a gradual integration, in a sense, is not a matter of choice but a necessity.

Professor Kim also says that the whole process should proceed peacefully and gradually in order for a unified Korea to achieve stability and growth at the same time.

All these projections are based on important assumptions. If unification is achieved through violent means, or if confusion arises in the unification process, a considerable part of the projections will fall apart. If that happens, it’s hard to expect high growth. For that reason, it is necessary for North Korea to gradually change into a market economy. For instance, family farming can be introduced in North Korea and the country may liberalize market transactions. North Korean companies could be given more autonomy and individuals may have opportunities to start their own businesses. These measures will surely help North Korea shift to the early stage of a market economy. If unification is achieved as a result of North Korea’s adoption of a market economy and peaceful and gradual integration of the two Koreas, I think the optimistic projections are feasible.

A unified Korea will present sweet fruit to both South and North Korea, but North Korea is expected to enjoy many more benefits. South Korea has already achieved rapid economic growth to become one of the top ten economies in the world. In contrast, if the underdeveloped North Korean economy actually implements reform and openness, investors from around the world will flock to the region. There are forecasts that after unification the North Korean region will be a new blue ocean for investors around the world.

In South Korea, companies simply keep their capital since they are unable to find proper investment outlets here. If the capital flows into North Korea, it will facilitate growth in the North. This will yield good returns for the South, producing a positive result for the South Korean economy. For investors in other countries, it is becoming difficult to find lucrative investment ideas these days. If North Korea carries out reform and openness in this situation, it’s no exaggeration to say that North Korea will be a substantial blue ocean. The country will be able to see huge benefits, which could be called a bonanza.

When talking about unification, many people express concerns over the huge costs. But the economic effect of a unified Korea after a peaceful and gradual integration will far surpass unification costs. The two Koreas will be able to see a bright future if they start preparing to make unification a “bonanza.” In this respect, we have high hopes for the positive roles of the committee in charge of preparing for unification.

[Interview]Former N. Korean Dancer Teaches Dancing in South

At a dance studio in Seoul, a student performs Korean traditional dance movements after her enthusiastic teacher. It is hard to guess the teacher’s age by her appearance or voice. She is a 78-year-old North Korean defector named Kim Young-soon. In North Korea, she learned to dance from legendary dancer Choi Seung-hee, a pioneer in Korean modern dance. Choi was acclaimed as one of the most accomplished dancers in the 1930s and the ‘40s when she introduced Korean dance to the entire world. Kim Young-soon attended the Dance Department at Pyongyang Art College, and she was taught by Choi for fifteen years until she was 31 years old. Kim says that her teacher told her not to forget the essence of dancing.

My teacher said something you may get tired of doing is not art. Art should be graceful and beautiful, and dancers should communicate with audiences through movements. That’s why everything in nature, including oceans, mountains, animals and fish, can be described in dancing. Dancers should be able to express everything through body movements, whether they are strong or soft, or straight or curved, and even through breathing. She was very strict in teaching us these lessons.

As a prominent dancer, Kim lived a comfortable life, which the top 1 percent in North Korea enjoyed. All of a sudden, however, Kim, along with her family, was sent to Yodok concentration camp in 1970. Her family was imprisoned simply because she was a friend of Song Hye-rim, a mistress of former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, and she was therefore presumed to be aware of the leader’s private life.

I spent nine years there. My parents starved to death, and I wrapped their bodies in straw mats before burying them. In the same way, I buried my son who was drowned. I lost all my family members there. It’s been 44 years since my husband was taken to another concentration camp. I spent nine years in Yodok camp and another three years in a mine and it was the most painful time of my life. What I experienced during that period was something I had never imagined before. Bodies were wrapped in straw mats only in ancient times. But that’s how it was in Yodok. Bodies were buried without coffins.

She escaped from North Korea in 2002 and finally arrived in South Korea the following year. Now, as a South Korean citizen, Kim has been talking about her miserable life in a prison camp to raise awareness about North Korea’s dire human rights situation. She’s not only testifying here in South Korea, but in other countries around the world as well. However, she says this is not her true mission.

My mission is to contribute to South Korea’s dance community before I die, even if only in a small way. I hope to teach everything about Choi Seung-hee’s dance to dance experts in their 50s and 60s here in South Korea. I’ve seen almost every dance performances here in the South for the last nine years. I discovered that Choi’s dance is second to none even here in South Korea. And even today, I’m sure her legendary dance can dominate the whole world. I’ll perform Choi’s dance and other traditional dance until I die, and I hope the dance performances will win the hearts of the audiences.