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Untitled Document
   
The genesis of North Korea’s missile program appears to date to around 1969, when the USSR provided it with the 60 km-range surface-to-surface FROG missile. However, it seems that actual development didn’t begin until 1976. During the Yom-Kippur War of 1973, North Korea received -B missiles from the USSR in exchange for supporting Egypt. Having obtained Scud-B missiles and launch pads, North Korea started developing its own missiles by disassembling and rebuilding the Scuds. North Korea’s missile system is thus based on the Scud line of missiles. North Korea has subsequently developed the longer-range Scud-C, the intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) ‘Rodong’, and the multi-stage rocket propulsion IRBM ‘Taepodong’. North Korea’s ballistic missiles are estimated to have obtained the capability to hit the U.S. mainland.

The performance of a missile is mainly measured by its range and accuracy. Range, the more important measure, indicates how far a distance the missile is able to travel before it reaches its target. Accuracy involves how precisely the missile hits its target. However, accuracy is of little relevance when discussing North Korea’s missile capabilities. In the case of IRBMs, the likelihood that a North Korea missile can hit some region of Japan or the U.S. mainland is in itself a serious threat. Therefore, the threat as perceived by neighboring nations is very grave despite the fact that North Korea’s missiles are believed to suffer from dismal accuracy and would most likely inflict no critical damage.

Moreover, the level of concern with which the international community regards North Korea missile threat is justified by the fact that in the absence of intervention, North Korea will continually improve its missiles technology to attain longer ranges and higher accuracy. In particular, the very likelihood of a missile equipped with nuclear warheads hitting some region within a nation’s territory poses a serious threat, even if the missile misses its mark by a wide margin. One other concern involving North Korea’s development of missiles is the export of such missiles to other nations.

With these developments, North Korea is assumed to have possessed an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, beginning in the 2000’s. In particular, North Korea demonstrated its ICBM capability, though only in part, by launching a long-range rocket on April 5, 2009. The technology for the launched rocket North Korea claimed to be the Eunha-2 space launch vehicle carrying the country’s communication satellite Gwangmyeongseong-2 into orbit can also be applied to ICBM development. It was observed that the rocket flew 3,100 kilometers. (Some estimate it traveled 3,900 kilometers.)

 
North Korea Missile Development Chronology(Most dates are estimates)
1969
  Adopts USSR’s surface-to-surface FROG missile (range: 60km)
1976
  Adopts USSR’s Scud-B missile and launch pad from Egypt
Starts independent development of missiles
1984
  Production of own Scud-B, placed in active service
1985
  Develops 300km-range Scud-B, starts development of improved (longer-range) Scud-C and ‘Rodong’ missiles(est.)
1989
  Develops 500km-range Scud-C
1990
  U.S. reconnaissance satellite spots prototype of ‘Rodong 1’ mounted on launch pad
Starts development of IRBM ‘Taepodong’ missile
1993
  Test-launches ‘Rodong 1 (May. Landed in the East Sea after flying 500km)
1994
  Production of ‘Rodong 1’, (placed in active service)
U.S. reconnaissance satellite spots ‘Taepodong’
1998
  Test-launches ‘Taepodong 1’(31st of August. North Korea claims it actually launched the satellite, ‘Gwangmyung-sung 1’)
2001
  Announces suspension of test-launches (until 2003)
2002
  Promises continued suspension of test-launches until after 2003 (North Korea-Japan Summit Talks)
2004
  Developing ‘Taepodong 2’(est.)
2006
  North Korea test fires the Taepodong-2 on July 5. (But it flew only 42 seconds before blasting off, with the rocket’s first stage failing to separate.)
2007
  North Korea begins deploying intermediate-range ballistic missiles with a range of more than 3,000 kilometers without test firing. (Some experts speculate North Korea test-launched the missile in Iran.)
2009
  North Korea launched a long-range rocket on April 5. (The North claims the rocket was the Eunha-2 space launch vehicle carrying the country’s communication satellite Gwangmyeongseong-2. The rocket traveled 3,100 kilometers for 15 minutes. The rocket’s third stage apparently failed to separate, but some analyze the separation was successful. Pyongyang did not manage to put a satellite into orbit.)
 
Current Status of North Korea Missiles
Missile
Range(km)
Warhead Wt.(kg)
Remarks
SCUD B(R-17E) 220-300 800  
SCUD C 500 600 in active service
Rodong 1 (SCUD D) 1,000-1,300 500 in active service
Taepodong 1(Rodong 2,SCUD E) 2,500
(presumption)
500(est.) test-launched
(Eunha-1?)
(August, 1998/1,600km in flight)
(July, 2006/ failure)
Taepodong 2 (Rodong 3) 6,700 1,000(est.) test launch (Eunha-2?)
(April, 2009/ 3,100 km in flight)
<Source : 2004 DEFENSE WHITE PAPER>