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| The genesis of North Korea’s missile program appears
to date to around 1969, when the USSR provided it
with the 60 km-range surface-to-surface FROG missile.
However, it seems that actual development didn’t
begin until 1976. During the Yom-Kippur War of 1973,
North Korea received -B missiles from the USSR in exchange
for supporting Egypt. Having obtained Scud-B
missiles and launch pads, North Korea started developing
its own missiles by disassembling and rebuilding
the Scuds. North Korea’s missile system is thus based
on the Scud line of missiles. North Korea has subsequently
developed the longer-range Scud-C,
the intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM)
‘Rodong’,
and the multi-stage rocket propulsion IRBM ‘Taepodong’.
North Korea’s ballistic missiles are estimated to have
obtained the capability to hit the U.S. mainland.
The performance of a missile is mainly measured
by its range and accuracy. Range, the more important
measure, indicates how far a distance the missile
is able to travel before it reaches its target.
Accuracy involves how precisely the missile hits
its target. However, accuracy is of little relevance
when discussing North Korea’s missile capabilities.
In the case of IRBMs, the likelihood that a North Korea
missile can hit some region of Japan or the U.S.
mainland is in itself a serious threat. Therefore,
the threat as perceived by neighboring nations
is very grave despite the fact that North Korea’s
missiles are believed to suffer from dismal accuracy
and would most likely inflict no critical damage.
Moreover, the level of concern with which the
international community regards North Korea missile
threat is justified by the fact that in the absence
of intervention, North Korea will continually improve
its missiles technology to attain longer ranges
and higher accuracy. In particular, the very likelihood
of a missile equipped with nuclear warheads hitting
some region within a nation’s territory poses
a serious threat, even if the missile misses its
mark by a wide margin. One other concern involving
North Korea’s development of missiles is the export
of such missiles to other nations.
With these developments, North Korea is assumed to have possessed an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, beginning in the 2000’s. In particular, North Korea demonstrated its ICBM capability, though only in part, by launching a long-range rocket on April 5, 2009. The technology for the launched rocket North Korea claimed to be the Eunha-2 space launch vehicle carrying the country’s communication satellite Gwangmyeongseong-2 into orbit can also be applied to ICBM development. It was observed that the rocket flew 3,100 kilometers. (Some estimate it traveled 3,900 kilometers.) |
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North Korea Missile Development Chronology(Most dates are
estimates) |
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| 1969 |
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Adopts USSR’s surface-to-surface FROG missile
(range: 60km) |
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| 1976 |
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Adopts USSR’s Scud-B missile and launch
pad from Egypt
Starts independent development of missiles |
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| 1984 |
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Production of own Scud-B, placed in active
service |
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| 1985 |
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Develops 300km-range Scud-B, starts development
of improved (longer-range) Scud-C and ‘Rodong’
missiles(est.) |
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| 1989 |
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Develops 500km-range Scud-C |
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| 1990 |
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U.S. reconnaissance satellite spots prototype
of ‘Rodong 1’ mounted on launch pad
Starts development of IRBM ‘Taepodong’ missile |
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| 1993 |
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Test-launches ‘Rodong 1 (May. Landed in
the East Sea after flying 500km) |
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| 1994 |
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Production of ‘Rodong 1’, (placed in active
service)
U.S. reconnaissance satellite spots ‘Taepodong’ |
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| 1998 |
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Test-launches ‘Taepodong 1’(31st of August.
North Korea claims it actually launched the satellite,
‘Gwangmyung-sung 1’) |
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| 2001 |
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Announces suspension of test-launches (until
2003) |
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| 2002 |
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Promises continued suspension of test-launches
until after 2003 (North Korea-Japan Summit Talks) |
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| 2004 |
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Developing ‘Taepodong 2’(est.) |
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| 2006 |
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North Korea test fires the Taepodong-2 on July 5. (But it flew only 42 seconds before blasting off, with the rocket’s first stage failing to separate.) |
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| 2007 |
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North Korea begins deploying intermediate-range ballistic missiles with a range of more than 3,000 kilometers without test firing. (Some experts speculate North Korea test-launched the missile in Iran.) |
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| 2009 |
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North Korea launched a long-range rocket on April 5. (The North claims the rocket was the Eunha-2 space launch vehicle carrying the country’s communication satellite Gwangmyeongseong-2. The rocket traveled 3,100 kilometers for 15 minutes. The rocket’s third stage apparently failed to separate, but some analyze the separation was successful. Pyongyang did not manage to put a satellite into orbit.) |
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Current Status of North Korea Missiles |
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220-300 |
800 |
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500 |
600 |
in active service |
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1,000-1,300 |
500 |
in active service |
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2,500 (presumption) |
500(est.) |
test-launched (Eunha-1?) (August, 1998/1,600km in flight) (July, 2006/ failure) |
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6,700 |
1,000(est.) |
test launch (Eunha-2?) (April, 2009/ 3,100 km in flight) |
| <Source : 2004 DEFENSE
WHITE PAPER> |
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